Submitted by 2point6billion.com Blog

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India and China’s growth is now certain and in many ways predictable, in other words, its old hat. For those who have their eyes set on future powers, they are keenly watching developments in Central Asia. Energy demands for burgeoning economies now mean that Central Asia is emerging as the new powerhouse.

Analyzing soft powers in the region, reveal many hard truths. Heavy-duty Chinese bulldozers groan day and night, building motor able roads that will connect towns with cities in Kazakhstan. In the countryside, Russian engineers are busy putting new cables on newly-erected towers to put a fresh spark into the rusty, unreliable electrical grid.

On the streets of Tashkent and Dushanbe, Bollywood numbers incite local people to break into impromptu jigs. And in the war-torn dust bowls of Afghanistan, American workers are building schools and hospitals in the middle of non-stop gunfire. The Indians are doing the same, at the risk of their lives. This is the soft side of the story — efforts to woo the Central Asian republics with humanitarian charm says Shobhan Saxena of The Times of India.

The hard truths of the world’s sudden love for the region are hidden behind the barbed wire fences and camouflaged battle gear. In the past few years, military bases have cropped up across the region. The Americans have several bases in Central Asia, including Afghanistan. The Russians, Nato and Chinese too have established military posts in the region. Even India can claim to have set up an air defense unit in Tajikistan.

But the competition is tough. The Americans and Russians are there too. And they have set up military bases in the region to protect their pipelines. India and China are following suit, with Beijing many steps ahead of India.

With the opening of China-Kazakhstan pipeline in December 2007, China has already secured much of the Kazakh oil. Working on a plan of making a new export corridor stretching from Kazakhstan’s oil-rich Caspian basin to China, Beijing is making sure that its oil supplies are not disrupted by a conflict, as is the case with present oil deliveries from the Persian Gulf and Sudan.

At present, China gets more than 15% of its oil from Iran. But, with the Iranian leaders playing with fire, China is now looking for cheap energy resources in its own backyard, even as it contemplates a military base in Iran. “Energy is the Achilles’ heel of China’s economic growth. Beijing knows that only too well.

Though it’s been late to act, India has begun to look for oil and gas in the region. As India inches closer to its nuclear deal with the US, the proposed Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is almost history. Even at the time of signing the nuke deal, then US assistant secretary of state Nicholas Burns had warned India that Iran “was not a reliable long-term supplier of fuel” and advised New Delhi to turn to places like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

India is finally waking up to the huge potential of Central Asia as an alternative energy hub. A few months back, Indian vice president Hamid Ansari traveled to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan with a delegation, exploring the possibilities of Indian participation in offshore Caspian Shelf for oil and gas blocks. India has also been exploring the possibility of joining the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan gas pipeline. It was with an eye on the energy resources of the region and China’s growing clout in Central Asia that India set up a military base at Ayni in Tajikistan two years ago.

“The global order is re-dividing into roughly two de facto blocs — one has the US at its core and the other has Russia-China at its core. Energy is the major dividing line between the two blocs,” W Joseph Stroupe, a strategic analyst, wrote recently. By putting the nuclear deal on the fast track, New Delhi too seems to be all set to join the US bloc and become an active participant in the energy war in Central Asia.